Tuesday, 25 July 2017

What could move Pound/Euro rates this week?

It's been a pretty quiet start to the week, with most major exchange rates largely unchanged. Pound/Euro rates have managed to recover slightly from €1.11 to €1.12, due to slightly worse than expected EU PMI numbers yesterday, making the single currency cheaper to buy. We're still some way off the €1.14 of a week ago however.

Will Pound/Euro rates go up or down this week?


Today is pretty quiet in terms of economic data that could move rates, however as we progress through the week there are several releases that could affect GBP/EUR. We start this evening at 6pm when one of the Bank of England's MPC members gives a speech. If he gives any indication that interest rates may rise it has the potential to push the Pound higher.

Tomorrow things get a bit more interesting, as we will see the latest UK GDP numbers, which are expected to show quarterly growth of 0.3%. If the actual release is higher or lower than this, the Pound will go up or down accordingly. We also have Mortgage approval numbers which can also affect Sterling.

Thursday is quiet from the UK and EU, so rates will be drive from data from the states. USD and EUR rates often move inversely, so any good news from the states has the potential to weaken the Euro and push GBP/EUR higher. Thursday sees US Jobless Claims, Trade Balance & Durable Goods orders, and if numbers miss forecasts then there could be movement in both GBP/USD and GBP/EUR.

We have a busy end to the week with UK consumer confidence & Housing Price data. EU data includes various confidence measures that could affect the single currency.  US GDP numbers are the last major release, an we expect a number of about 1.3% quarterly growth.

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